Democracy Research Institute: Signs of Strengthening Russian Influence in Occupied Regions Emerged in September

According to the Democracy Research Institute, numerous instances indicating the strengthening of Russian influence in occupied Abkhazia and South Ossetia were observed in September.

The organization notes that following the presidential election in de facto South Ossetia, the winning candidate emphasized deepening the policy of rapprochement with Russia, while during the "Independence Day" celebrations in Abkhazia, Russia was portrayed as the primary partner and supporter.

The Institute reports that on September 23, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin met with the de facto Foreign Minister of Abkhazia, Oleg Bartsits, and the State Advisor to the de facto President of South Ossetia, Konstantin Kochiev. At the meeting, the parties discussed the issues of obtaining legally binding guarantees from Georgia regarding the non-use of force, as well as the delimitation and demarcation of the state borders between Georgia and Abkhazia and between Georgia and South Ossetia.

According to the Democracy Research Institute, this demand is not new and has been voiced repeatedly in previous years by representatives of Russia, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia. The organization highlights a change in wording in the September 2026 statement: the current demand specifically refers to "legally binding guarantees" regarding Georgia's non-use of force.

The Institute notes that the planned meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and the de facto Foreign Minister of South Ossetia, Akhsar Jioev, also points to a continued policy of strengthening Russian control over the occupied regions. Coordination on international platforms—including within the framework of the Geneva International Discussions—is cited as one of the topics for the meeting. The organization notes that these processes are unfolding against the backdrop of the ratification—scheduled for May 2026—of the agreement between Russia and the Tskhinvali region on "deepening alliance and integration."

Furthermore, the Democracy Research Institute draws attention to the visit of a Russian delegation to the Patriarchate of Georgia on September 28–29, noting that information regarding the visit first circulated in Russian sources, while the Georgian side was compelled to speak publicly about the meetings only later.

According to the organization's assessment, the events of September demonstrate that, alongside the use of diplomatic and "soft power" tools vis-à-vis Georgia, Moscow continues to strengthen its control and legal leverage within the occupied regions.