The agreement with Iran is Trump's biggest political failure yet - Gia Nodia

Analyst Gia Nodia writes on social media:

"The agreement with Iran, in my opinion, is Trump's biggest political failure yet. This is not even an agreement, but a temporary (sixty-day) postponement of the problem (closing the Strait of Hormuz). There is no prospect that Iran will concede on any principled issue.

Trump has had failures before, but he either denied them (as he denied losing the 2020 elections) or somehow covered them up (so what if he promised a "deal" with the North Korean dictator and failed to make a deal; so what if he ended the war in Ukraine in two weeks, but the war is still going on; so what if he bluffed with tariffs with China, but could not achieve anything, etc.). No particular political damage He accepted.

In this case, he would also lose in the eyes of his supporters. I do not mean characters like Tucker Carlson, who from the very beginning were fundamentally opposed to the war and were building anti-Semitic conspiracy theories - "The cunning Netanyahu dragged the naive Trump into his war." (However, the loss of this wing of the MAGA is also painful for Trump). No, he would also lose in the eyes of those who supported America's active policy on a principled level.

Whether military experts will agree with me or not, I do not know, but Trump lost his chance when he did not take the islands in the Strait of Hormuz (Kharg or others), which he could have done. By doing so, he would have taken away Iran's main trump card. Most likely, he would have avoided casualties. In any case, either you should not start a war, or you can take risks.

Before the elections, more Republicans will see him as a liability, or a weak letter of the party. Many said that he would act like a “lame duck” after the elections, but I think he is acting like one now.

On the other hand, the so-called restrainers (roughly speaking - isolationists) within the current administration will be strengthened; they will have something to say: we told you to be for us and not interfere in anything.

Those whose main motive is Trump-hatred can be happy - Trump “flipped”. But objectively, there is nothing good in strengthening players like Iran.